TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL TRENDS IN QUETTA VALLEY, PAKISTAN: A CMIP6-BASED ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL AND FUTURE CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Abstract

The paper explores historic and future climatic patterns of temperature and rainfall in Quetta Valley in Pakistan which is an arid region with a high susceptibility to climate change. As indicated by historical analysis, there exist strong warming patterns in minimum and maximum temperatures with an obvious trend of rising through the period under consideration, along with a small but statistically significant decline of the annual rainfall that is further boosting regional aridity. The ongoing warming is expected to be followed by a further increase in temperature that may reach 8°C in maximum temperatures by the year 2100 according to the high-emission SSP585 scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate uneven patterns that overall have a drier (the potential of lower rainfall than the baseline in SSP585) trend. These results indicate the growing climate fragility of Quetta Valley and the strong need in adaptive practices in water management, agriculture production, and sustainability initiatives.